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ShowZone's MLB The Show 26 Roster Update Predictor uses real-life MLB statistics — 5-day momentum plus a 21-day trend window in partnership with LouisAnalysis — to project which players are likely to upgrade (HOT) or downgrade (COLD) at the next roster update. Current top HOT upgrade candidates in the free Common and Bronze tier: Ray Kerr, Raymond Burgos, Connor Thomas, Michael Rucker, Cole Carrigg. Each links to its player detail page with live marketplace prices, historical trend, and full stat breakdown. Free users see Common and Bronze tier predictions above. ShowZone Pro unlocks Silver, Gold, and Diamond tier predictions — the rarity- crossing candidates where a Silver-to-Gold jump can 4x a card's quicksell value overnight and where 90 OVR-threshold "high diamond" candidates deliver the largest sustained price moves. Predictor refreshes daily with the latest MLB stat lines; rankings reset after each roster update ships.

Top HOT Upgrade Candidates (Free Tier)

  1. Ray Kerr — RP — Atlanta Braves — current overall 65
  2. Raymond Burgos — RP — Boston Red Sox — current overall 62
  3. Connor Thomas — RP — Kansas City Royals — current overall 54
  4. Michael Rucker — RP — Seattle Mariners — current overall 68
  5. Cole Carrigg — CF — Colorado Rockies — current overall 79
MLB The Show 26

Roster Update Predictor

Predict upcoming upgrades and downgrades using real-life performance metrics. Built in partnership with LouisAnalysis. For early access to picks, visit the LouisAnalysis Patreon.

Upgrade to Unlock All Cards
You currently only have access to Common and Bronze cards, for access to all cards, upgrade to ShowZone Pro.
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New to roster updates?

Roster updates change MLB The Show 26 player ratings roughly every few weeks based on real-life MLB performance. They're the game's biggest recurring market-moving event — cards that upgrade can double in price, cards that downgrade can crash overnight. Read our complete guide to the MLB The Show 26 roster update for everything you need to know.

FAQ

Roster Update Questions

San Diego Studio releases MLB The Show 26 roster updates on Fridays roughly every 3 weeks during the MLB season, typically around 12 PM PT / 3 PM ET. The exact cadence can shift around major events (All-Star game, postseason, World Series) and occasional out-of-cycle adjustments tied to special programs. After that, San Diego Studio typically pauses roster updates once the MLB playoffs begin and resumes after the World Series, so the next update after this one is expected the Friday after the World Series concludes — projected for Friday, November 6, 2026 (not yet confirmed by SDS).

Our predictor uses real-life MLB statistics to identify players performing significantly above or below their card ratings. Predictions are most accurate during stable performance windows — short hot/cold streaks may trigger temporary changes that revert. Built in partnership with LouisAnalysis, the predictor combines 5-day momentum and 21-day trend windows to surface both short-term and sustained movers.

The predictor pulls each player's real-life MLB stats and compares them to league averages and the player's historical performance. Players outperforming their card rating get flagged as upgrade candidates (HOT), while underperformers get flagged as downgrade candidates (COLD). The 21-day window enforces minimum AB/IP thresholds to filter out small-sample noise; the 5-day window catches emerging streaks early.

Free users see Common and Bronze tier predictions on the main list — the tier where the biggest percentage returns live (a Silver-to-Gold jump 4x's a card's quicksell value overnight). ShowZone Pro unlocks Silver, Gold, and Diamond tier predictions, including the 90 OVR-threshold "high diamond" candidates that pack pull rates make rare and the sustained lower-tier upgrade candidates most likely to cross a rarity threshold. Pro Diamond members additionally see the full per-team predictions view and can set price alerts on individual projected upgrades.

San Diego Studio usually releases roster updates on Fridays, typically around 12 PM PT / 3 PM ET, though the day occasionally shifts (Thursday around holidays). Market prices on cards expected to upgrade often start moving in the days before the release, which is why the predictor is most valuable leading up to update day.

After the first roster update of the year, San Diego Studio releases roster updates roughly every 3 weeks during the MLB regular season. They are not weekly. Cadence can shift around major events like the All-Star game, postseason, and World Series, and SDS occasionally pushes out-of-cycle adjustments tied to special programs.

The biggest profit opportunities are on lower-tier cards likely to cross a rarity threshold. For example, a Silver card with a 100 Stubs quicksell that gets bumped to Gold jumps to 400 Stubs — a 4x return overnight. The same logic applies for Bronze-to-Silver and Gold-to-Diamond jumps. The other high-leverage play is finding cards likely to break the 90 OVR threshold to become a "high diamond," since those are rarer pack pulls and tend to climb in value over time. Buy projected upgrades in the days before the update before prices spike, then sell once the new ratings go live.

Most flippers focus on Gold and below — that's where the biggest percentage returns live. A card crossing from Silver to Gold or Bronze to Silver can multiply quicksell value 3-4x in a single update. The other high-value target is the 90 OVR threshold inside the Diamond tier — cards that break 90 OVR become "high diamonds," which are rarer pack pulls and climb in value over time. Pure diamond-to-diamond rating bumps tend to have smaller percentage moves.