Understanding the odds of pulling top-tier cards in MLB The Show 25 can help you make smarter Stub decisions. Whether you're cracking open a Standard Pack or gambling on the latest Premium set, knowing your chances at a sweet pull is a good thing.
What Are Pack Odds?
Pack odds refer to the percentage chance you have to pull a card of a certain rarity tier (Gold, Diamond, etc.) from a specific pack type. In-game these are displayed as odds like 1:5 defining "one out of five" packs will feature whatever tier is being listed. For the purposes of this post, we're turning those into a percentage so you can see it a little more plain. Essentially, this is the percentage chance you'll see a card or cards of each respective tier.
MLB The Show Pack Odds
While MLB The Show 25 pack odds are subject to change with updates and promos, here’s the typical breakdown for a single Standard Show Pack:
- Common to Silver (Bronze/Silver Tiers): ~84%
- Gold (80-84 OVR): ~1 in 10 packs (~10%)
- Diamond (85+ OVR): ~1 in 50 packs (~2%)
Keep in mind: The odds displayed represent the chance of at least one card of that tier per pack, not per individual card slot.
Chase Packs and Special Pack Odds
Chase Packs—often bundled with The Show Packs or sold individually—carry significantly boosted odds:
- Diamond Player (85+ OVR): ~1 in 2 packs (50%)
- 90+ OVR: ~1 in 10 (10%) or better depending on the current featured player
Limited-time packs like Headliners, Ballin’ Is a Habit, and Choice Packs also have varying odds, often displaying something like:
- Ballin’ Is a Habit: 1 Gold or better guaranteed
- Headliners: 1 in 10 chance to pull the featured Diamond
- Diamond Choice Packs: Guaranteed Diamond, with better cards in the rare round (1 in 5 or 1 in 10 chance)
Closing Thoughts
If you’re playing the long Stub game, Show Packs are more of a volume play. Chase Packs and special bundles often provide better value for chasing high-end cards. In almost every case, buying the cards you want off the market will save you Stubs.
But you can't scratch that diamond-chasing itch any other way than to crack some virtual packs.
Got a favorite card from a pack this year? Let us know in the comments and keep ripping those packs!
Cory Wayne Dell
Cory has been writing about all things baseball and gaming since 2022 and has been featured at Operation Sports as well as cited by Forbes. Cory is also a multi-instrumentalist and founder of the band Cargocastle. Cargocastle's latest single, "Truth and Reconciliation," is available on Spotify and all major streaming platforms. Cory is also the author of Shadow of a Monster, a personal memoir currently seeking publication.
